NDF - Financing for climate change and development projects

NCF 7: Improved business through seasonal forecasting for coffee in Vietnam

Photo: University of Copenhagen
Photo: University of Copenhagen
Photo: University of Copenhagen
Photo: University of Copenhagen
The aim of this project is to deliver climate forecasts and support for coffee farmers and traders to enhance economic growth, coffee quality and environmental sustainability.

Improved business through seasonal forecasting for coffee in Vietnam
Ref: NDF C96

Nordic Partner: University of Copenhagen
Local Partner: International Centre for Tropical Agriculture
Other Local Partners: Sustainable Management Services Ltd (SMS
Vietnam), Real-Time Analytics
Total Project Cost: EUR 787,498    
NCF Financing: EUR 449,999
Agreement Signed: 11 September 2018
Project type: Combination
Duration: 30 months

Climate change is threatening the livelihoods and food security of millions of smallholder farmers in SE-Asia. Vietnam is the second largest coffee producer globally; however, climate change impact assessments suggest a reduction of up to 60% of suitable growing area by 2050. The ability to forecast extreme/unusual climate conditions months in advance for farmers to adapt their crop management strategies, is one of the most important developments in environmental sciences of current times.

The core of this project is the development of a tailored seasonal climate forecasting system and a set of associated decision support tools for coffee farmers. The decision support tools will be customised to translate the climate forecasts into managerial options for farmers. In addition, the project will produce a yield forecasting system for traders. Incorporating the trading sector of the value chain will ensure informed buying/selling decisions, increase market stability and reinforce productivity of suppliers. These solutions will not only enhance the profitability of current farming systems, but also improve their climate change resilience and environmental sustainability.

Expected results
Overall, the project will seek to achieve enhanced resilience of smallholder coffee farmers and agri-businesses to climate change, leading to shared economic growth, gender equality and healthier environments. Key results include:
• An accurate and reliable seasonal forecasting system, leading to better preparedness of smallholder farmers to climate variability and change
• The development of a tailored information and communication platform, creating shared value throughout the chain and long-term ownership of the forecasting system
• A yield forecasting system that supplies key market information for traders which also creates an important loop in the value chain for innovative green business development